The project focuses on the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, which represent radiative forcing peaking at 4.5 W/m2 (RCP4.5) and 8.5W/m2 (RCP8.5), respectively, by 2100. While RCP 4.5 is a scenario that stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 Watts per square meter in 2100, the RCP8.5 scenario corresponds to the path with the highest greenhouse gas emissions. RCP4.5 expects a global temperature increase of 3ºC, assuming that societies reduce emissions rapidly but not rapidly enough to keep warming below 2ºC. On the other hand, RCP8.5 corresponds to the worst-case scenario, assuming that societies do not make coordinated efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It is important to use the worst case results to analyze the impacts on a wider range of outcomes.
Co-applicant Istanbul Technical University (ITU) will be responsible for WP1. The WP1 team will consist of three researchers, one senior and two early stage. Convection Permitting Climate simulations (CPM) for each area will be run in a parallel processing environment to complete the project within 18 months. Therefore, the ITU high-performance computing center will be used for computer hours for the service.
Different existing and tolerant tree species (20 in total) will be tested and suitability maps will be obtained using the Habitat Suitability Model (HSM) showing where suitability will increase, decrease or remain constant for the selected tree species. It will be implemented through the Biomod2 software. Habitat suitability maps for each tree species will be the output from WP2. The climate variables required to run both software will be taken from WP1. The results of the habitat suitability map will be a good reference for adaptation strategies through forest management and forestry plans. The joint applicants Karadeniz Technical University (KTU) and MFRI will both be responsible for WP2. The WP2 team will consist of two researchers, one senior and one early stage, for each partner. The KTU team will run the MaxEnt simulations and MFRI will monitor and control the Biomod2 results provided through outsourcing.
Separate tree species maps would not make sense. They should be logically organized into a single map. A single future tree species mix map (pure, mixed or unsuitable) presenting the spatial location of selected tree species across Turkey will be shown for the periods considered. Since the project will take into account country borders, a future tree species mix map will be prepared on a geographical region basis to manage the data. WP3 will mainly serve to find the areas expected to be most affected by climate change, i.e. the areas where tree species change will be experienced the most. The co-applicant Karadeniz Technical University (KTU) will be responsible for WP3. The WP3 team will consist of two researchers, one senior and one early stage.
With the help of future tree species map and transition matrices (transition matrix will be obtained by the intersection of current and future tree species mix map), the most affected/changed areas will be identified and classified (Figure 1). In addition, spatial indices will be estimated to evaluate the spatial changes in Türkiye for approximately 80 years. The final map obtained will be used to develop appropriate planning and forestry adaptation strategies. The co-applicant Karadeniz Technical University (KTU) will lead WP4, but the entire team MFRI and ITU will be responsible for WP4 and will undertake the action. The WP3 team will consist of two researchers, one senior and one early stage. Two researchers from each partner will work for WP4.
This WP will work on the identification of seed sources that can be used horizontally and vertically in afforestation studies and the ex situ and ex situ protection of these seed sources. In addition, in situ and ex situ conservation strategies of the species will also be addressed within the scope of this WP. According to the climate projections where species change is predicted, a guideline will be developed that suggests silvicultural activities such as coordination of the substrate and subsequent stand transformation possibilities that may be required for appropriate stand structure, widespreading of the reservation of standards in suitable stands for the continuity of seed trees that can be used in later regeneration activities, determination of appropriate seed stands, determination of areas required for the establishment of seed plantations and seed orchards. This WP will also work on ecological restoration and flexible silvicultural practices can be determined to reveal the change and development of species depending on climate change scenarios and to support species adaptation. Co-applicant Karadeniz Technical University (KTU) will be responsible for WP5. However, MFRI will also undertake the action together with KTU and two researchers from each partner will work on this WP.
Within the scope of the project, various data and maps will be produced and communicated to target groups and beneficiaries. Stakeholders can download future outputs for forest enterprises, planning units, cities to integrate their work for better adaptation. The web platform of the action will be created to create awareness and share the data obtained within the scope of the action with the end user. The subject, scope, objectives of the action, definitions of WPs, outputs obtained within the scope of the action and materials constituting the dissemination activities will be included on the web platform. The main purpose of the web platform is to communicate the data and maps to be created within the scope of the action to the stakeholders determined as target groups, forest enterprises, planning units, urban planners and other beneficiaries. The co-applicant Karadeniz Technical University (KTÜ) will be responsible for WP6. The WP6 team will consist of two researchers, one senior and one early stage.
Dissemination of project results to target groups (forest management planning teams, practitioners, urban planners, etc.) or beneficiaries (universities, research institutions) and replicability of methods and results to other regions. The General Directorate of Forestry (OGM) is responsible for sustainably managing Turkey's forests, which constitute approximately 30% of the country, and implementing various silvicultural approaches.