Predicting Distribution of Future Basic Forest Tree Species

Using Different Climate Projections and Developing Adaptation Strategies for Türkiye

Project Information

Priority Area: Climate Change Adaptation Grant Programme (CCAGP)

Budget: €177,286.37

Duration: 18 months

Start Date: 12.12.2023

End Date: 12.06.2025

Project Goals

  • Estimate future tree species distribution
  • Map forest areas most affected by climate change
  • Research adaptable tree species
  • Develop adaptation strategies
  • Expand knowledge base for foresters and society

Project Description and Objectives

It is accepted that there have been five major extinctions in the world, and one million plant and animal species are at risk of extinction with a sixth expected in the near future.

Turkey is among the most vulnerable countries to climate change effects as the Mediterranean basin is a climate change hotspot. While Turkey's forest area has increased in the last decade, their structure and composition remain sensitive to climate change impacts.

This project aims to predict geographical distribution of basic tree species using climate projections, develop forest management and silvicultural adaptation strategies, and share these findings with stakeholders.

Project Activities

WP1: Regional climate projections

Developing regional projections based on different climate scenarios

WP2: Habitat suitability estimation

Species suitability analysis using Maxent and Biomod

WP3: Species mixture mapping

Creating future tree species mixture maps

WP4: Impacted area identification

Classifying forest areas vulnerable to climate change

WP5: Adaptation strategies

Developing management and silvicultural adaptation approaches

WP6: Data sharing

Publishing project data online

WP7: Dissemination

Sharing results with relevant stakeholders

WP8: Project coordination

Project management and coordination activities

Significance and Expected Impacts

The habitat suitability maps and adaptation strategies developed through this project will enhance the resilience of Turkey's forest resources to climate change, provide scientific basis for forestry planning, and contribute to biodiversity conservation.

The knowledge generated will inform forest management decision-making processes, supporting the sustainability of ecosystem services.